Sports wagering can be quite profitable if anyone know the techniques this “smart money” bettors work with to consistently make income. One of the greatest secrets that wise money gamblers use is definitely knowing when NOT in order to bet.
Here’s a excellent case in point. We analyzed the Western world Florida vs. Louisville activity, and concluded that will West Virginia had the particular edge in the match. Nevertheless , We also came to the realization that there was a lot of random and unknown factors, and recommended to my clients that they carry out not wager on that game. Here is my own analysis I released prior to the game:
West California vs . Louisville
This video game offers all the signs of being one involving the best games involving the year, using both teams coming into the action 7-0. เล่นบาคาร่าออนไลน์ ‘s #3 graded West Virginia against. #5 ranked Louisville, both together with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s sport was a classic, using West Virginia coming backside from staying down huge in the 4th fraction to winning within overtime.
So what’s the overall game look like this year?
If this match were as played with a good basic field, West California would probably be a 4-6 level favorite. Since this game is in Louisville, WVU is a 1-point under dog. Let’s see if this will make sense…
West Virginia can be on an unprecedented spin. They haven’t lost considering that July. 1, 2005, proceeding 14-0 since they dropped to Virginia Tech. On the last two months they’re 13-5 ATS as well. They’re also 7-2 ATS in their last on the lookout for games overall, and 8-2 OBTAIN THE in their final 10 HIGHWAY games.
These are some very impressive stats that tilt this scales in favor regarding WVU to get tonight’s games. Plus, typically the added benefit is that WVU is definitely GETTING +1 point. This could not look like quite a bit, but in a in close proximity match-up like this, that spare point might make the variation between a good push plus a loss.
But what with regards to Louisville?
Louisville’s numbers may be almost as good while WVU’s -except when that comes to Louisville within the point spread. In their particular previous 10 games, Louisville is simply 4-6 ATS. That said, Louisville is even so 7-3 ATS inside their last 10 home game titles.
Together with if you’re leaning in direction of WVU, here’s a frightening stat… Louisville hasn’t missing at home since 12 20, the year 2003! During this recent run Louisville is averaging 49. five points each game in your house, while hitting only letting go of 15. 6 points each game at home. In case a person failed to do the figures, that means considering their own last home decline they’ve averaged beating their particular oppositions by about 34 points per game.
In addition outstanding, the average line during these games has only already been 21 points. That means that Louisville has beaten the particular pass on, on average, by means of 13 factors per game at home due to the fact 2003.
Wow… how can a person go against that?
Here’s precisely how…
Nearly all of those stats were being established during the july 2004 season. This year, 2006, Louisville has been nearer to fine than great. They have already had recent games by which they also have only scored twenty eight, 3, 24 points. And the online games weren’t against Oh Saint. or Michigan. They will had been against Cincinnati, Syracuse, and even Kansas St.
To put it succinctly that will this is still the close sport to call. Yet the things i look intended for is West Virginia’s protection to carry the day. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, together with Kansas St. can all hold Louisville under 35 points, then there’s not any explanation to think WVU can’t hold them to this low to mid 20’s. My honest advice can be to lay off that game and definitely not gamble at all. There will be better video games this saturday and sunday with more simple rewards.
The final score with this game was Louisville 44, West Florida 34. Lousiville won because West Va had 6 fumbles and even allowed Lousiville to go back a punt for a new TD. The bottom line was the fact that West Virginia’s edge wasn’t so big they will could very well still win after generating so many mistakes. By simply not betting on this kind of activity, people really serious with regards to gambling saved money many people can put to better use on coming games.